STAT/08/119
26 August 2008
Population projections 2008-2060
=46rom 2015, deaths projected to outnumber births in the EU27
Almost three times as many people aged 80 or more in 2060
The EU27 population is projected to increase from 495 million on 1
January 2008 to 521 million in 2035, and thereafter gradually decline
to 506 million in 2060. The annual number of births is projected to
fall over the period 2008-2060, while at the same time the annual
number of deaths is projected to continue rising. From 2015 onwards
deaths would outnumber births, and hence population growth due to
natural increase would cease. From this point onwards, positive net
migration would be the only population growth factor. However, from
2035 this positive net migration would no longer counterbalance the
negative natural change, and the population is projected to begin to
fall.
The EU27 population is also projected to continue to grow older, with
the share of the population aged 65 years and over rising from 17.1%
in 2008 to 30.0% in 2060, and those aged 80 and over rising from 4.4%
to 12.1% over the same period.
These population projections1 for the period 2008-2060 come from a
re****t2 issued by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European
Communities. Population projections are what-if scenarios that aim to
provide information about the likely future size and structure of the
population, and should therefore be considered with caution.
Strongest population growth in Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg and the
United Kingdom
There are projected to be considerable differences between the
individual Member States. Between 2008 and 2060, the population is
projected to rise in thirteen Member States and fall in fourteen. The
strongest population growth is projected to be found in Cyprus (+66%),
Ireland (+53%), Luxembourg (+52%), the United Kingdom (+25%) and
Sweden (+18%), and the sharpest declines in Bulgaria (-28%), Latvia
(-26%), Lithuania (-24%), Romania (-21%) and Poland (-18%).
In 2060, the Member States with the largest populations would be the
United Kingdom (77 million), France3
(72 mn), Germany (71 mn), Italy (59 mn) and Spain (52 mn).
30% of the EU27 population to be aged 65 or more in 2060
The EU27 population is projected to become older throughout the
projection period, due in particular to persistently low fertility and
an increasing number of survivors to higher ages. This ageing process
would occur in all Member States. In 2060, the share of the population
aged 65 or more is projected to range from 23.6% in Luxembourg, 24.7%
in the United Kingdom and 25.0% in Denmark to 36.2% in Poland, 36.1%
in Slovakia and 35.0% in Romania.
In consequence, the old age dependency ratio in the EU27, i.e. the
population aged 65 years and older divided by the working age
population, is projected to increase from 25% in 2008 to 53% in 2060.
In other words, there would be only two persons of working age for
every person aged 65 or more in 2060, compared with four persons to
one today. The old age dependency ratio is projected to be more than
60% in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland,
Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia, and less than 45% in Denmark, Ireland,
Cyprus, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom.
The EUROPOP2008 =93convergence scenario=94 is based on the population on
1st January 2008 and on the assumption that fertility, mortality and
net migration will progressively converge between Member States in the
long run. Alternative assumptions in a different conceptual framework
would yield different results.
Eurostat, Statistics in Focus, 72/2008 "Ageing characterises the
demographic perspectives of the European societies", available free of
charge in pdf format on the Eurostat web site.
"France m=E9tropolitaine", excluding the four overseas departments
(French Guyana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, R=E9union)
charts here:
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=3DSTA=
T/08/119&format=3DHTML&aged=3D0&language=3DEN&guiLanguage=3Den
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